The Predictions on the Future of Labour are not Grounded; Some Arguments for a Bayesian Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18662/po/35Keywords:
future of labour, prediction, Bayesian method, fitness argument.Abstract
Expectations on predicting the future of work are not substantiated, and can only control some of the variables that define its character. The following variables could help to shape a Bayesian methodological framework of the future of labour and could interfere in modelling labour status: 1) The meaning of labour depends on the context of significance specific to each historical period; 2) The fate of labour is dependent on the ontological status of the utensil; 3) The status of labour is defined to a significant extent in the selffulfilling / defeating prophecy horizon; 4) The normative perspective: the future of labour will be as we want it to be; but we cannot predict the evolution of our desires; 5) The present confirms to a small extent the expectations of the past; 6) Predictability in the field of labour is not protected by black swans: the evolution of artificial intelligence outlines the most important dimension of the extremistan; 7) If the decision belongs to the human, there will be at least some areas where human labour will be preferred; 8) The increase in the number of jobs and the decrease in their quality cannot be excluded; 9) the progress can also lead to the increase of the number of jobs; 10) The diminishing of social control over labour will persist. The arguments in favour of labour show that it will still exist; but we cannot be sure who and how it will be, or what status it will have.References
Armstrong, S., & Sotala, K. (2012). How we’re predicting AI – or failing to. In J. Romportl, P. Ircing, E. Zackova, M. Polak & R. Schuster (Eds.), Beyond AI: Artificial dreams (pp. 52–75).
Pilsen, Czech Republic: University of West Bohemia. Arnold, C. (2018). Money for nothing: The truth about universal basic income. Nature, 557(7707), 626-628. doi:10.1038/d41586-018-05259-x
Beaudry, P., Green, D. A., & Sand, B. M. (2016). The great reversal in the demand for skill and cognitive tasks. Journal of Labor Economics, 34(suppl. 1), 199- 247. doi:10.1086/682347
Blinder, A. S. (2009). How many US jobs might be offshorable? World Economics, 10(2), 41-78. Retrieved from https://www.princeton.edu/ceps/workingpapers/142blinder.pdf
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2014). The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. New York, USA: Norton.
Bushman, B. J., Baumeister, R. F., & Stack, A. D. (1999). Catharsis, aggression, and persuasive influence: Self-fulfilling or self-defeating prophecies? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 76(3), 367-376. doi:10.1037//0022- 3514.76.3.367
Chen, S. (2018). Forget the Facebook leak’: China is mining data directly from workers’ brains on an industrial scale. South China Morning Post, 2018, April 29. Retrieved from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2143899/forgetfacebook-leak-china-mining-data-directly-workers-brains
EUROSTAT. (2017) Employment rate by sex, age group 20-64, 1993-2016. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-datasets/- /t2020_10&lang=en
Frey, C., & Osborne, M. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254– 280. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019
Heidegger, M. (2002). The origin of the work of art. In M. Heidegger, Off the Beaten Track (pp. 1-56). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Kelly, K. (2007). The Maes-Garreau point. The Technium, 2007, March 14. Retrieved from http://kk.org/thetechnium/the-maesgarreau/
Manyika, J., Lund, S., Chui, M., Bughin, J., Woetzel, J., Batra, P., Ko, R., & Sanghvi, S. (2017). Jobs lost, jobs changed: Impact of automation on work. In McKinsey Global Institute, Jobs gained: Workforce transitions in a time of automation (pp. 23-33). San Francisco, USA: McKinsey & Company.
McLuhan, M. (2003). Understanding media. The extensions of man. Corte Madera, USA: Gingko Press.
Merton, R. K., (1948). The self-fulfilling prophecy. The Antioch Review, 8(2), 193-210. doi:10.2307/4609267
Rotilă, V. & Celmare, L. (2017). Analysis of a major inequity in the budgetary wage system: Gerontocracy. Arguments and solutions, In A. Sandu, A. Frunză, T. Ciulei, G. Gorghiu & A. Petrovici (Eds.), Rethinking Social Action. Core Values in Practice (pp. 730-739). Bologna, Italy: Medimond.
Spencer, D. A. (2018). Fear and hope in an age o mass automation: Debating the future of work. New Technology, Work and Employment, 33(1), 1-12. doi:10.1111/ntwe.12105
Srnicek, N. & Williams A. (2015). Inventing the future. Postcapitalism and a world without work. London, UK: Verso.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York, USA: Random House.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant this journal right of first publication, with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work, with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g. post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as an earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
Postmodern Openings Journal has an Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs
CC BY-NC-ND